Journal article
The Precursor Assumption: What an Early-Warning Threshold Must Deliver in a Frontier Safety Framework, Why the Continuity Evidence Covers Aggregates Under Fixed Elicitation Rather Than the Thresholded Task, and the Lead Time No Published Record Measures
(c) 2026 Pranay Mahendrakar. Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Frontier safety frameworks decide when a model needs stronger safeguards by testing it against capability thresholds at a fixed cadence, and they place an early-warning threshold below each capability threshold so that mitigations can be…