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Journal article

Three Hazards Under One Horizon: Constant-Hazard, Degrading-Step and Log-Logistic Accounts of Agent Failure Describe Different Levels of the Same Data, the 50 Percent Trend Barely Depends on Which Is Right, and Every High-Reliability Forecast Does

Pranay Mahendrakar 2026

(c) 2026 Pranay Mahendrakar. Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Forecasts of autonomous AI capability increasingly rest on one number: the length of task, measured in human working time, that an agent completes half the time. That number has doubled roughly every seven months, and three accounts of why…

Cite Related research LOR-00094 · 7 views · 4 downloads Select “Three Hazards Under One Horizon: Constant-Hazard…” for export

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Journal article

The Precursor Assumption: What an Early-Warning Threshold Must Deliver in a Frontier Safety Framework, Why the Continuity Evidence Covers Aggregates Under Fixed Elicitation Rather Than the Thresholded Task, and the Lead Time No Published Record Measures

Pranay Mahendrakar 2026

(c) 2026 Pranay Mahendrakar. Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Frontier safety frameworks decide when a model needs stronger safeguards by testing it against capability thresholds at a fixed cadence, and they place an early-warning threshold below each capability threshold so that mitigations can be…

Cite Related research LOR-00084 · 10 views · 8 downloads Select “The Precursor Assumption: What an Early-Warning Threshold…” for export

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