Journal article
The Precursor Assumption: What an Early-Warning Threshold Must Deliver in a Frontier Safety Framework, Why the Continuity Evidence Covers Aggregates Under Fixed Elicitation Rather Than the Thresholded Task, and the Lead Time No Published Record Measures
Frontier safety frameworks decide when a model needs stronger safeguards by testing it against capability thresholds at a fixed cadence, and they place an early-warning threshold below each capability threshold so that mitigations can be prepared in time. That design is sound only if a warning…