Journal article
Three Hazards Under One Horizon: Constant-Hazard, Degrading-Step and Log-Logistic Accounts of Agent Failure Describe Different Levels of the Same Data, the 50 Percent Trend Barely Depends on Which Is Right, and Every High-Reliability Forecast Does
Forecasts of autonomous AI capability increasingly rest on one number: the length of task, measured in human working time, that an agent completes half the time. That number has doubled roughly every seven months, and three accounts of why agents fail on longer tasks now sit behind its…